In the ocean liner turning process that characterizes a great nation's change in view of strategic inputs, nimbleness and agility are more applauded in speeches than observed in practice. Media coverage of yesterday's release by the US Energy Information Administration of the "highlights section" of its International Energy Outlook zeroed in on the "high price case" which sees oil climbing to $186 per barrel, unadjusted for inflation, in 2030.

The nature of the Green Energy War varies considerably around the world, but support for feed-in tariffs is an increasingly common litmus employed by renewables advocates globally to evaluate the efficacy of government efforts. Remarkably successful in bringing large amounts of renewable capacity online in Germany and Spain, the feed-in tariff has become the preferred policy mechanism for jurisdictions more intent on tangible results than the creation of abstract trading instruments, intermittent tax goodies or unenforceable portfolio requirements.

This morning's press briefing by the Prime Minister's Spokesman confirms that the long-awaited UK Renewable Energy Strategy will be published in two days. The report, underway for some time, is being rushed forward after a blistering criticism of the Gordon Brown government's performance by a committee of Parliament.

Combatants on the climate front of the Green Energy War have long looked to Germany for inspiration. Despite deepening rifts in Angela Merkel's "grand coalition" government, and some obvious soft spots in the package, the CO2 reduction measures endorsed by her cabinet last week will reinforce the German imprint on any progress which comes out of next month's G8 summit in Hokkaido, Japan.

Depending upon the outcome of next month's Hokkaido G8 summit, especially its "major economies" side event, the IEA's recent climate report could establish the framework by which the world struggles to develop the successor agreement to the Kyoto Accord. How useful this will be is likely to turn on the specificity attached to George Bush's acceptance of a binding target for the US and the meaning of China's and India's embrace (through their national science academies) of a 50% reduction target for 2050.

The agenda-setting function of last week's IEA climate report was reinforced by two developments yesterday. First, German Chancellor Angela Merkel endorsed US President George Bush's plans for a "major economies" climate summit held in conjunction with next month's G8 summit in Hokkaido, Japan. And second, a 2050 GHG reduction target of 50% was jointly recommended by the national science academies of thirteen countries, including all of the G8 nations as well as Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa (i.e., all of Bush's "major economies" except Australia, Indonesia and South Korea).

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The climate strategy published last week by the International Energy Agency, an analytic response to the commitment made by G8 leaders in 2007 to "seriously consider" GHG emission reduction targets of 50%, is emphatic about the need to "decarbonise" the generation of electricity. The IEA identifies three principle ways to achieve this:

For many analysts, the Green Energy War is characterized by the same unpredictable chaos associated with all military conflicts. Intelligence is limited. Unanticipated conditions rapidly appear. Developments cascade with unenvisioned quickness. Even the best of battle plans seldom unfolds as expected.

Two dispatches from the carbon capture theater of the Green Energy War's climate front make clear that to describe current efforts as being at a standstill might be wildly optimistic.